Stabilising the public finances to Weather the global storm

Written on 10/27/2022
MJ Minter Inc

The 2022 MTBPS presents a strategy to continue stabilising the public finances while supporting economic growth in a highly volatile global economy. Fiscal consolidation is achieving the objectives of the strategy originally outlined in the 2020 MTBPS. Lifted by better-than-expected revenues, the fiscal position is stronger. At the same time, increased funding for safety and security, fighting corruption and delivering infrastructure will support longer-term growth prospects. 

Key issues:

  • South Africa is restoring the health of its public finances during a global slowdown marked by high levels of economic risk and fiscal distress, particularly for developing countries.
  •  In 2023/24, a primary budget surplus – revenue exceeding non-interest spending – of 0.7 percent of GDP is expected. Gross debt is now projected to stabilise at 71.4 percent of GDP in 2022/23 – more quickly than previously expected.
  •  Urgent action is required to accelerate growth-enhancing reforms, especially to boost electricity supply. Real GDP growth is forecast to average a moderate 1.6 percent over the next three years.
  • Government will focus on ensuring clear and stable macroeconomic policies, implementing economic reforms and addressing key enablers to growth and state capability.
  •  Higher-than-anticipated revenues will be used to reduce the gross borrowing requirement, support spending priorities and reduce risks to the fiscal outlook.