MEDIUM-TERM EXPENDITURE OUTLOOK

The following article is an excerpt from our November 2017 newsletter:

To offset revenue shortfalls and reduce borrowing, government has had to reduce its reserves. This leaves government with little room to maneuvre should risks to the expenditure ceiling materialise. Moreover, further reductions in the ceiling may be required to stabilise national debt. Various risks and pressures need to be taken into account over the medium term:

  • Additional spending commitments may emerge from policy processes underway. Government is evaluating the implications of providing fee-free higher education and training to poor and middle-income students. Other policy commitments include NHI, proposals in the Defence Review, improved early childhood development, accelerated land reform and several large infrastructure project proposals.
  • The inflation outlook has been revised down compared with the 2017 Budget, relieving pressure on inflation-linked expenditure such as the wage bill. However, public-sector remuneration budgets pose a large and imminent risk, with the possibility that some national and provincial departments will exceed compensation ceilings.
  • A new civil service wage agreement in which salary increases exceed CPI inflation, and without headcount reductions, would render the current expenditure limits difficult to achieve.
  • Several state-owned companies persistently demonstrate operational inefficiencies, poor procurement practices, weak corporate governance and failures to abide by fiduciary obligations.

Debt-service costs

At a time when revenue is under pressure, an increasing share of tax collection will be diverted to settle interest payments. As gross debt expands, debt service will remain the fastest-growing category of spending over the next three years. Relative to the 2017 Budget projections, debt-service costs will be R1 billion higher in 2017/18, R2.4 billion higher in 2018/19 and R6 billion higher in 2019/20. By 2020/21, government projects that nearly 15 per cent of main budget revenue will go toward servicing debt. This crowds out the space to fund social and economic priorities.

Interest payments as a share of main budget revenue

Source: National Treasury

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